BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS

Authors

Keywords:

Indústria de Transformação, Taxa de Câmbio, Vetor de Correção de Erros.

Abstract

The present research purpose is to analyze the Brazilian industrial profile, aiming to answer the following question: is a deindustrialization process taking place in the Brazilian economy? In this sense, two Error Vector Correction (EVC) models were adjusted, with the following dependent variables: industrial physical production in the Brazilian manufacturing industry (high intensity, medium-high, medium-low, and low intensity) and the industrial physical production in the extractive industry. The independent variables were the effective real exchange rate; commodity price index; and coefficient of the degree of commercial openness. The results indicated a significant reduction in the participation of the manufacturing industry in the Brazilian GDP. Regarding exports of non-industrial products, there was a greater increase than products due to technological intensity. In contrast, the imports of non-industrial products presented a fall and an increase in products due to technological intensity. Considering the estimation of the EVC, the results indicated that the exchange rate devaluation stimulates exports, that the opening of trade was extremely harmful. Finally, can be concluded that there is a strong evidence of the Brazilian deindustrialization process.

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Author Biographies

  • Daniel Arruda Coronel, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
    Doutor em Economia Aplicada pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Professor Associado do Departamento de Economia e Relações Internacionais (UFSM) e Bolsista de Produtividade do CNPq
  • Leonardo Sangoi Copetti, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
    Mestre em Administração pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM).

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Published

2021-11-11

Issue

No. 51 (2020)

Section

Artigos

License

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How to Cite

BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS. (2021). Estudos Do CEPE, 51, 71-89. https://seer.unisc.br/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119